中国宣布外债重组。

中国宣布已经就20个穷国提出的债务重组方案达成协议。但是，中国究竟借了多少钱给第三世界国家，还是个谜。今天，英国金融时报报道。

China strikes debt deals with poor nations under G20 scheme.

Half of requests to defer payments have been agreed — but keyAngolan test awaits.

China says it has struck agreements with half of the 20low-income nations that have requested debt restructurings as partof their efforts to tackle the coronavirus pandemic.

“Work on this is progressing well,” the Chinese foreign ministrysaid, adding that the World Bank and major developed nations stillheld most of the debt of a number of heavily indebtedcountries.

Beijing is negotiating under a G20-led debt standstill schemefor low-income countries launched in April, in a move designed tohelp them focus on tackling the health and economic crisestriggered by the pandemic. The scheme, known as the Debt ServiceSuspension Initiative, allows eligible countries to freezebilateral loan repayments until the end of the year.

China’s talks mark the country’s first participation in aco-ordinated, multilateral debt reliefinitiative. Analysts and private-sector investorssay that a deal with Angola, in particular — the largest recipientof Chinese lending across Africa over the past two decades — willbe vital.

“You really can’t overstate the importance of Angola in the[DSSI], which also ties into the general international response tothe impact of Covid-19 in the developing world,” said Mark Bohlund,senior analyst at Redd Intelligence. Under the DSSI, “a lot of theburden essentially falls on China,” he said.

Angola has received around a third of all Chinese lending toAfrica, and has by far the most to gain from the DSSI. About $2.6bnin repayments due in 2020 could be frozen, representing 3.1 percent of gross domestic product, according to the World Bank.Mozambique could defer a similarly large sum as a share of GDP —about 2 per cent, or $295m.

Angola’s outstanding external government debt totals about$49bn, of which 45 per cent is owed to China, according to thecentral bank in Luanda. How close the two sides are to a deal isunclear, but investors and analysts believe it could form atemplate.

“Given that China is such an important creditor for manylow-income countries, that’s a really big deal,” said JanFriederich, head of Middle East and Africa sovereign ratings atFitch, the credit rating agency.

Analysts note that tracking the progress of DSSI negotiations isnot easy, particularly given the weight of lending provided byChina, often without publicly available terms. Much lending hasbeen from state-owned Exim Bank, China’s export credit agency, butsome came from state-owned China Development Bank, which China hassought to categorise as commercial lending.

“The issues all investors wrestle with are: we don’t know theofficial size, we don’t know what is 'officially official’ and whatis not, and we don’t know what the terms are going in or what theterms are going out,” said Eric Baurmeister, head of emergingmarkets fixed income at Morgan Stanley Investment Management, whichhas a small exposure to Angolan government bonds.

Although China tended to do “bespoke debt restructuring on acase-by-case basis”, Angola’s terms would inform those offered toother DSSI-eligible countries, and could set a longer-termprecedent on the country’s willingness to relieve major borrowersof their debts, said Greg Smith, emerging markets strategist atM&G Investments.

The negotiations will also influence the IMF’s decision aboutwhether to release the next tranche of its $3.7bn loan to Angola —a decision it delayed in July, said Jermaine Leonard, Fitch’s leadAngola analyst.

The “big question” is “will the IMF sign off on [Angola’s]current debt outlook, will they deem it sustainable?” said MrLeonard. The IMF is precluded from lending to countries with debtsit considers unlikely to be repaid. The IMF said this month theorganisation was in “continuing talks” with Angola.

The Angolan Finance Ministry did not respond to a request forcomment.