关于投资的50个不幸的真理

​关于投资的50个不幸的真理可悲的现实清单

摩根·豪斯尔（Cmfhousel） 2012年11月14日 11：51PM    作者生物作者Morgan Housel，是Collaborative Fund的合伙人，也是The Motley Fool及《华尔街日报》（The Wall Street Journal）的前专栏作家对不起 但是...1.说 "当别人害怕时我会贪婪" 比实际这样做要容易得多。2.一家伟大的公司和一个伟大的投资之间的鸿沟可能是非同寻常的。3.市场每年至少经历一次大回拉，每十年一次大规模回调。习惯它。他们就是这样做的4.金融专家领域几乎没有责任。多年来对每件事都是错的人仍然吸引人群。5.正如埃里克·法尔肯斯坦所说："在专家网球中，80%的积分是赢的，而在业余网球中，80%是输的。摔跤、国际象棋和投资也是如此：初学者应该专注于避免错误，专家应该注意做出伟大的动作。6.有数以万计的专业资金经理。据统计，其中少数是纯粹偶然成功的。哪个？我不知道，但我敢打赌有几个是著名的。7.在这方面，我们称之为"传奇"的一些投资者在职业生涯中几乎没有击败指数基金。在华尔街，大财富并不代表大回报。8.在经济衰退、选举和美联储政策会议期间，人们对他们一无所知的事情变得无可动摇地确定。9.投资感觉越舒服，你就越有可能被屠杀。10.省时提示：与其交易便士股票，倒把钱点燃。杠杆ETF也一样。11.世界上没有一个人知道市场在短期内会做什么。故事的结尾。12.谈论错误分析家是你想听的人。避免那个不该 - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - -13.你不了解大银行的资产负债表。经营这个地方的人和他们的会计师也没有。14.未来50年将有7至10次衰退。当他们来的时候，不要表现得很惊讶。15.三十年前，每天有一小时的市场电视。今天有18个小时以上。改变的不是新闻量，而是驱动器的量。16.沃伦·巴菲特的最佳回报是在市场竞争力小得多的时候实现的。怀疑有人会比他50年的纪录更符合。17.关于投资学校所教的多数知识都是理论上的无稽之谈。很少有富有的教授。18.电视上的人越多，他或她的预测就越不可能成真。（加州大学伯克利分校心理学家菲尔·泰特洛克有关于这个的数据）。19.相关：不要相信每周在CNBC上超过两次的人。20.市场不在乎你花了多少钱看股票。或者你的房子或者你认为是"公平"的价格。21.大多数市场新闻不仅毫无用处，而且有害于您的财务健康。22.专业投资者拥有比您更好的信息和更快的计算机。你永远不会击败他们的短期交易。别试了23.一个基金经理有多少经验并不能告诉你多少。在整个职业生涯中，你的表现可能低于市场。许多人已经.24.交易成本的下降是投资者最坏的事情之一，因为它使频繁的交易成为可能。高交易成本曾经导致人们在采取行动之前进行思考。25.专业投资是最难成功的职业之一，但它的进入门槛很低，不需要资历。这造就了大批"专家"，他们不知道他们在做什么。人们忘记了这一点，因为它不适用于许多其他领域。26.大多数首次公开募股（IPO）都会烧死你。信息比你想卖的人多。想想看27.当某人提到图表时，移动平均线、头部和肩部形态或阻力位就走开。28.据谷歌称，"双底衰退"一词在2010年和2011年被提及1080万次。它从来没有来过。2006年和2007年几乎没有提及"金融崩溃"。确实来了29. 20年期美国国债的实际利率为负值，投资者正向它们投入资金。恐惧比算术强得多。30. 《顾客的游艇在哪里》一书？写于1940年，大多数人还没有发现，财务顾问没有他们的最佳利益在心脏。31.低成本指数基金是历史上最有用的金融发明之一。无聊但美丽。32.世界上最好的投资者在心理学方面比在金融方面更具有优势。33.市场每天做什么，绝大多数是由随机机会驱动的。将解释与短期走势一起，就像试图解释彩票号码一样。34.对大多数人来说，找到省钱的方法比寻找大投资更重要。35.如果你有信用卡债务，并正在考虑投资任何东西，停止。你永远不会超过30%的年利率。36.大部分股票回购只是抵消作为补偿而向管理层发行的股票。经理们仍然把回购吹捧为"回报股东的钱"。37.至少有一家知名公司资不抵债，躲在欺诈性会计背后的可能性很高。38. 20年后，标准普尔500指数（SNPINDEX：+GSPC）看起来一点也不像今天那样。公司消亡，新公司涌现。39. 12年前，通用汽车（NYSE：GM）处于世界之最，苹果（纳斯达克：AAPL）受到嘲笑。在接下来的十年里，类似的转变将会发生，但没有人知道哪些公司。40.如果大多数人不再沉迷于国会、美联储和总统，而专注于自己的财政管理不善，情况会更好。41.对许多人来说，房屋是伪装成安全资产的一种大负债。42.总统对经济的影响力比人们想象的要小得多。43.无论你认为退休需要多少钱， 都加倍。现在你更接近现实了44.下一次衰退从来不像上次那样。45.记住巴菲特对进步的说："先来创新者，然后来模仿者，然后是白痴。46.马克 · 吐温对真理说的： "谎言可以周游世界， 而真理是穿上它的鞋子。47.马蒂·惠特曼（MartyWhitman）对信息说："很少做超过三到四个变量真正重要。其他一切都是噪音。48.合并越大，失败的可能性越大。CEO们喜欢通过为公司多付钱来建立帝国。49.几乎没有上行和大缺点的投资超过那些具有相反特征的投资，至少为10比1。50.最无聊的公司 -- -- 牙膏、食品、螺栓 -- -- 可以进行一些最好的长期投资。最创新，有些最差。每周二和周五查看摩根豪斯关于金融经济学的专栏。​https://www.fool.com/investing/general/2012/11/14/50-unfortunate-truths-about-investing.aspx50 Unfortunate Truths About InvestingA list of sad realities.

Morgan Housel (cmfhousel)Nov 14, 2012 at 11:51PMAuthor Bio Morgan Housel is an economics and finance columnist for Fool.com. Analyst, Motley Fool One.More ArticlesSorry, but ...1. Saying "I'll be greedy when others are fearful" is much easier than actually doing it.2. The gulf between a great company and a great investment can be extraordinary.3. Markets go through at least one big pullback every year, and one massive one every decade. Get used to it. It's just what they do.4. There is virtually no accountability in the financial pundit arena. People who have been wrong about everything for years still draw crowds.5. As Erik Falkenstein says: "In expert tennis, 80% of the points are won, while in amateur tennis, 80% are lost. The same is true for wrestling, chess, and investing: Beginners should focus on avoiding mistakes, experts on making great moves."6. There are tens of thousands of professional money managers. Statistically, a handful of them have been successful by pure chance. Which ones? I don't know, but I bet a few are famous.7. On that note, some investors who we call "legendary" have barely, if at all, beaten an index fund over their careers. On Wall Street, big wealth isn't indicative of big returns.8. During recessions, elections, and Federal Reserve policy meetings, people become unshakably certain about things they know nothing about.9. The more comfortable an investment feels, the more likely you are to be slaughtered.10. Time-saving tip: Instead of trading penny stocks, just light your money on fire. Same for leveraged ETFs.11. Not a single person in the world knows what the market will do in the short run. End of story.12. The analyst who talks about his mistakes is the guy you want to listen to. Avoid the guy who doesn't -- his are much bigger.13. You don't understand a big bank's balance sheet. The people running the place and their accountants don't, either.14. There will be seven to 10 recessions over the next 50 years. Don't act surprised when they come.15. Thirty years ago, there was one hour of market TV per day. Today there's upwards of 18 hours. What changed isn't the volume of news, but the volume of drivel.16. Warren Buffett's best returns were achieved when markets were much less competitive. It's doubtful anyone will ever match his 50-year record.17. Most of what is taught about investing in school is theoretical nonsense. There are very few rich professors.18. The more someone is on TV, the less likely his or her predictions are to come true. (U.C. Berkeley psychologist Phil Tetlock has data on this).19. Related: Trust no one who is on CNBC more than twice a week.20. The market doesn't care how much you paid for a stock. Or your house. Or what you think is a "fair" price.21. The majority of market news is not only useless, but also harmful to your financial health.22. Professional investors have better information and faster computers than you do. You will never beat them short-term trading. Don't even try.23. How much experience a money manager has doesn't tell you much. You can underperform the market for an entire career. And many have.24. The decline of trading costs is one of the worst things to happen to investors, as it made frequent trading possible. High transaction costs used to cause people to think hard before they acted.25. Professional investing is one of the hardest careers to succeed at, but it has low barriers to entry and requires no credentials. That creates legions of "experts" who have no idea what they are doing. People forget this because it doesn't apply to many other fields.26. Most IPOs will burn you. People with more information than you have want to sell. Think about that.27. When someone mentions charts, moving averages, head-and-shoulders patterns, or resistance levels, walk away.28. The phrase "double-dip recession" was mentioned 10.8 million times in 2010 and 2011, according to Google. It never came. There were virtually no mentions of "financial collapse" in 2006 and 2007. It did come.29. The real interest rate on 20-year Treasuriesis negative, and investors are plowing money into them. Fear can be a much stronger force than arithmetic.30. The book Where Are the Customers' Yachts? was written in 1940, and most still haven't figured out that financial advisors don't have their best interest at heart.31. The low-cost index fund is one of the most useful financial inventions in history. Boring but beautiful.32. The best investors in the world have more of an edge in psychology than in finance.33. What markets do day to day is overwhelmingly driven by random chance. Ascribing explanations to short-term moves is like trying to explain lottery numbers.34. For most, finding ways to save more money is more important than finding great investments.35. If you have credit card debt and are thinking about investing in anything, stop. You will never beat 30% annual interest.36. A large portion of share buybacks are just offsetting shares issued to management as compensation. Managers still tout the buybacks as "returning money to shareholders."37. The odds that at least one well-known company is insolvent and hiding behind fraudulent accounting are high.38. Twenty years from now the S&P 500 (SNPINDEX:^GSPC) will look nothing like it does today. Companies die and new ones emerge.39. Twelve years ago General Motors (NYSE:GM) was on top of the world and Apple (NASDAQ:AAPL) was laughed at. A similar shift will occur over the next decade, but no one knows to what companies.40. Most would be better off if they stopped obsessing about Congress, the Federal Reserve, and the president and focused on their own financial mismanagement.41. For many, a house is a large liability masquerading as a safe asset.42. The president has much less influence over the economy than people think.43. However much money you think you'll need for retirement, double it. Now you're closer to reality.44. The next recession is never like the last one.45. Remember what Buffett says about progress: "First come the innovators, then come the imitators, then come the idiots."46. And what Mark Twain says about truth: "A lie can travel halfway around the world while truth is putting on its shoes."47. And what Marty Whitman says about information: "Rarely do more than three or four variables really count. Everything else is noise."48. The bigger a merger is, the higher the odds it will be a flop. CEOs love empire-building by overpaying for companies.49. Investments that offer little upside and big downside outnumber those with the opposite characteristics at least 10-to-1.50. The most boring companies -- toothpaste, food, bolts -- can make some of the best long-term investments. The most innovative, some of the worst.Check back every Tuesday and Friday for Morgan Housel's columns on finance an economics.