经济学人商业||英国最大汽车制造商捷豹路虎深陷泥潭
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导读
捷豹路虎母公司塔塔汽车交出最差季报
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听力|精读|翻译|词组
Tata to the rescue
塔塔伸出援手
英文部分选自经济学人20190216中Business版块
The car industry (1)
汽车工业
Tata to the rescue
塔塔伸出援手
Jaguar Land Rover, Britain’s biggest carmaker, is in a hole
英国最大汽车制造商捷豹路虎深陷泥潭
Range rovers, the pricey range-topping models from Jaguar Land Rover (JLR), flaunt interiors swagged in leather and wood. Such opulence distracts attention from the car’s capability as a rugged off-roader, as adept at driving up a mountainside as gliding around the smartest part of town. JLR’s ability to haul itself out of the mire is also about to undergo a serious test.
捷豹路虎高端车型路虎揽胜，价格不菲，以真皮和实木为主的内饰，散发着张扬的气息。如此的奢华分散了人们对其强悍越野性能的注意力：既擅长行驶在崎岖不平的山路上，也擅长在城镇最繁华的地段滑行。（如今）捷豹路虎 拖拽自身走出泥潭的能力也将面临着严峻的考验。
After a string of quarterly losses, on February 7th JLR revealed another, of £273m ($351m) in the latest three-month period. On top of that there was a whopping asset write-down, of £3.1bn. In the immediate aftermath, shares in its parent company, Tata Motors, which is the car making arm of the Indian conglomerate, collapsed by 18% and have now fallen by 60% in the past year. Tata Motors relies on JLR for about 80% of its sales and all of its profits. Despite the blow, Natarajan Chandrasekaran, chairman of Tata Group as well as the car division, says his company is committed to JLR and determined to turn it around.
在经历了一连串的季度亏损之后，2月7日，捷豹路虎披露最近三个月里再度亏损2.73亿欧元(合3.51亿美元)。最重要的是，资产减记幅度高达31亿英镑。紧接其后，其母公司塔塔汽车的股价暴跌了18%，并在过去一年中总计下跌了60%。塔塔汽车是印度企业集团的汽车制造部门。而塔塔汽车80%的销售和所有利润都依赖于捷豹路虎。尽管受此重击，塔塔集团(Tata Group)董事长兼汽车部门董事长纳塔拉扬·钱德拉塞克兰(Natarajan Chandrasekaran)已承诺，公司将致力于扭转捷豹路虎的局面。
It would not be the first turnaround. When Tata acquired JLR from Ford in 2008 it was close to bankruptcy. Since then sales have tripled, to over 600,000 cars a year in 2017. Profits have rolled in. But Ralf Speth, a former bmw executive hired to lead JLR on a route to catch its German rivals, may in recent years have gone too far, too fast. He pushed to sell 1m cars a year to help spread the costs of developing future technology.
这种转变并非第一次发生。2008年塔塔从福特手中收购捷豹路虎时，它就已经濒临破产。但塔塔接手之后，捷豹路虎的销量翻了两倍，截至2017年全年销量已逾60万辆。利润滚滚而来。不过，宝马前高管拉尔夫·斯皮思(Ralf Speth，中文名字施韦德)就任带领捷豹路虎走上追赶德国竞争对手之路后，近年来或许走得太远、步伐太快了。为了分摊开发未来技术的成本，他力促年销100万辆汽车。
JLR hit the brakes in 2018. Sales volumes fell by 5% worldwide in the 12 months to December, after plummeting in China at the end of the year (see chart) as the slowing economy put off buyers and Jaguar’s relationship with its dealers in the country deteriorated. The company now faces an array of problems. Its best market continues to collapse and it is reliant on increasingly unpopular diesel engines (which power the vast majority of its cars in Europe). Add to that the threat of American tariffs and a hard Brexit and the near future looks worrisome.
2018年，捷豹路虎踩了个急刹车。截止2018年12月的连续12个月里，其全球销量下降了5%。而中国经济增长放缓，买家减少、捷豹与其在华经销商关系恶化，去年年底，中国市场销量直线下降(见图表)。这家公司现在面临一系列的问题：其最好的市场持续崩溃，同时，它依赖的柴油发动机又越来越不受欢迎（该公司在欧洲销售的绝大多数汽车都使用柴油发动机）。除此以外，美国的关税和英国硬脱欧的威胁均使其前景堪忧。
Brexit and trade wars are out of JLR’s hands. Its huge bet on diesel engines and its poor handling of its Chinese dealers were not. The latter had to sell cars at a loss to meet stiff sales targets or keep them on forecourts—and have since refused to hold ever-growing inventories. JLR’s woes also owe much to its over ambition. Mr Speth spent freely and costs have soared.
但是，在柴油发动机上的豪赌以及对国内经销商的糟糕处理方式，却并非如此。为了达成严格的销售目标，国内经销商要么不得不亏本销售汽车要么只能将汽车停放在展示厅里，并于此后拒绝持有不断增长的库存。捷豹路虎今日之困很大程度上源于其过于野心勃勃，斯皮思花钱大手大脚，成本飙升。
In going for growth JLR now spends too much making too many models for a carmaker of its size. Range Rovers are popular and the Evoque has been an unexpected success but the new Discovery and Velar have performed poorly. What to do with Jaguar is another conundrum. In the recent past the brand has probably never made an annual profit (Tata Motors does not break out figures). Mr Speth’s decision to invest in upmarket saloon cars, a contracting part of the market where the Germans have a stranglehold, looks a costly mistake. The XE and XF have never sold well. Mr Speth himself “may need to take responsibility for what’s gone wrong” says Robin Zhu of Bernstein, an equity-research firm.
为追求增长，捷豹路虎开发的车型过多，相关支出也过于庞大，远超其规模。路虎揽胜很受欢迎，极光也取得了意想不到的成功，但新款发现和星脉却表现不佳。捷豹何去何从则是另一个难题。最近一段时间，该品牌可能从未实现过年度盈利(塔塔汽车没有公布具体数字)。斯皮思投资高档轿车的决策，看起来是个代价高昂的错误。德国人控制下的高档轿车市场正在不断萎缩，捷豹xe和xf的销量一直不佳。股票研究公司伯恩斯坦（Bernstein）的罗宾·朱（Robin Zhu）表示，斯皮思本人可能需要为出现的问题负责。
Tata, nevertheless, remains committed to the management that turned JLR from near bankruptcy to become the world’s fourth-largest luxury car brand. It plans to cut costs by £2.5bn over the next 18 months and will axe 4,500 jobs (around a tenth of the workforce) on top of 1,500 job losses announced in 2018. That should turn its cashflow positive by 2020-21, according to Tata.
不过，塔塔公司，曾将捷豹路虎从一家几近破产的汽车公司转变成为世界排名第四的豪华车品牌，如今也仍致力于扭转捷豹路虎的局面。塔塔计划在接下来的18个月时间内削减逾25亿英镑的成本，在2018年裁员1500人的基础上，将再削减4500个岗位（约占职员总数的十分之一）。塔塔称，此举拟在2020-2021年间将其现金流扭亏为正。
The Indian group’s judgment that JLR is a good business that will recover, seems sound. Tata may have washed its hands of Corus, another ailing British acquisition, putting the steelmaker into a joint venture with ThyssenKrupp of Germany last year, but it sees JLR as an important bet on new technology and thus the future. Jaguar may need to rethink what sort of cars it makes but Range Rover is among the most profitable brands in the business and updated models arriving in the next few years will give the firm a boost. If it can get through the next year, then concentrate on expensive suvs, JLR should get back on track.
塔塔集团认为捷豹路虎是一家优质企业，将会东山再起，这听起来似乎很有道理。相比而言，对于收购的另一家处境不佳的英国企业康力斯（Corus），塔塔去年将其与德国蒂森克虏伯合并成立合资公司后，似乎打算不再过问。由此可见，塔塔公司将捷豹路虎视为对新技术即未来的一个重要押注。或许捷豹需要重新思考要制造何种类型的汽车，而路虎揽胜则是汽车业中利润最高的品牌之一，未来几年里将推出的众多新款车型也将提振路虎。捷豹路虎如果能在下一年里渡过难关，聚力于豪华SUV，就能够重振旗鼓，东山再起。
翻译组：
Andy，男，咨询民工，经济学人爱好者
Vambie，女，互联网民工，经济学人粉丝
VeRy，男，电气民工，经济学人资浅爱好者
校核组：
Li Xia, 女， 爱爬山的健身小白， 美食狂人
Forest，女，自由职业，保持与自己的距离
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观点|评论|思考
本次观点由Hikali独家奉献
Hikali，女，商科在读，英语日语死忠粉
路虎销况不佳、公司陷入泥淖，这一境况是发生在全球汽车产业寒冬大背景下的。在这阵凌冽寒风中，最令汽车制造商们头疼的是，过去作为大部分公司主要利润来源的中国市场，销量明显下降，曾经的蓬勃发展态势马上就要宣告结束。据数据统计，2018年，中国汽车市场出现20年来的第一次萎缩，销量下降到2810万部，足足下跌2.8%。到2018年底，销量再度下跌13%，情况不容乐观。
对路虎而言，大背景下的行业周期性衰退无疑会使其受挫，而在中国市场口碑下降更是致命一击。过去，中国豪车市场由奔驰、宝马和奥迪三分天下，后来者路虎以其硬派的“越野范”闯入市场，成功分得一杯羹。然而，好景不长，路虎频频传出“故障”的负面新闻：行使过程中突然熄火抱死、显示变速箱故障、无法转动方向盘……这些大大小小的毛病已让车主苦恼，而公司对投诉的傲慢态度更是让人恼怒。公司不仅没有真诚道歉、积极处理，反而指责车主别有用心、造谣诬陷。渐渐地，路虎口碑下滑，失去民心。
要想成功走出泥淖，路虎需要针对两方面问题入手。其一，在全球汽车产业萧条大环境中，可以效仿其他汽车制造商的做法：及时撤出发生亏损的国家和细分市场、裁员、把资金集中到高收益汽车型号的生产中；和其他汽车制造商联合或合并；加大对电动汽车、无人驾驶汽车、共享汽车等移动服务领域的投资。其二，“入乡随俗”，尽可能根据市场自然、人文环境对汽车细节进行调整，降低故障率，并做好售后服务。
Tata能否拯救路虎于水深火热之中仍需观望。毕竟，过去路虎在中国大火的原因，有其“高贵的英国血统”因素，而如今成为“印度车”，怕是让一些消费者心中有些膈应。不过，若是Tata能给足资金，做好战略规划，还是有望力挽狂澜、东山再起的。
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